Sweden is holding a highly contested election that could lead to the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) entering government for the first time, hinging on whether right-wing parties secure a majority. Recent polls indicate a neck-and-neck battle between the center-left opposition and the center-right bloc, with only a 0.3 percentage point gap separating them.
The Sweden Democrats have already influenced government policy through their 2022 agreement with the center-right Moderates’ leader, Ulf Kristersson, who broke a political taboo by aligning with the far-right party. This minority coalition deal granted the SD significant sway over immigration and crime legislation. If the right-wing coalition wins, SD is anticipated to be rewarded with ministerial posts, marking a substantial political breakthrough for the party.
Election Context and Political Stakes
Magdalena Andersson, leading the center-left Social Democrats, is favored to become prime minister again but faces a narrowing lead. Both blocs have shifted their policies rightward on issues like immigration and crime to win over voters. While Andersson’s party is unlikely to reverse current hardline policies, concerns remain about the potential for further restrictive measures should the far-right gain power.
The SD’s election manifesto includes plans to criminalize “anti-Swedish sentiment” more aggressively, revoke permanent residency permits, and intensify immigration cuts under the slogan “make Sweden Sweden again.” Observers warn these positions could further erode Sweden’s longstanding reputation as a global human rights leader, a status already weakened during the current term.
Human Rights Concerns and Political Impact
Legal experts highlight that the past four years saw major policy shifts in crime and immigration aimed at reducing immigration and forcibly or voluntarily encouraging migrants to leave Sweden. John Stauffer of Civil Rights Defenders expressed concern about a continuation of this trend, stating that the Sweden Democrats do not prioritize human rights or Sweden’s role as an advocate in international human rights law.
Despite harsh measures introduced recently—such as deporting teenagers and lowering the age of criminal responsibility—many voters still associate Sweden with a strong human rights tradition. However, the rise of far-right influence threatens to diminish this image and Sweden’s international standing.
Potential Outcomes and Coalition Dynamics
The election outcome remains uncertain, with a record number of early votes expected and smaller parties potentially playing a decisive role. The Liberals, a small coalition partner who has shown signs of cooperating with the SD, could be key for the right-wing coalition’s ability to form a government. On the left, increased support for the Centre Party might influence voter turnout and seat distribution.
The election is also shaped by broader European political trends, with right-wing parties making gains elsewhere, such as Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland and Marine Le Pen’s lead in France. The final results and government formation talks might take weeks or months, reflecting the razor-thin margin and complex alliance negotiations inherent in Swedish politics.
