The ongoing conflict between Pakistan and the Taliban in Afghanistan has created new strategic openings for India, experts say. Pakistan has been conducting cross-border strikes targeting Taliban militants in Afghanistan since early 2026, accusing the Taliban authorities in Kabul of harboring militants attacking Pakistan. Kabul denies these claims. This tension has weakened Pakistan’s historical influence over Afghanistan and prompted the Taliban to consider broadening their external relations, presenting India with diplomatic opportunities, according to analysts.
India’s potential role includes expanding diplomatic contacts, humanitarian aid, development projects, and trade with Afghanistan while seeking guarantees that Afghan territory will not support anti-India militant groups. However, experts emphasize that this situation does not signal a fundamental realignment or strategic alliance between India and the Taliban.
Opportunities and Limitations for India
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, an Afghanistan expert, notes the absence of ideological alignment between India and the Taliban. Afghanistan’s foreign policy under Taliban rule is expected to be diversified rather than exclusively favoring New Delhi. India also faces geographic and economic hurdles in replacing Pakistan’s traditional influence because it lacks similar security presence and regional leverage.
Former Indian ambassador Amar Sinha suggests that India should not view the Pakistan-Taliban conflict merely as a chance to gain at Pakistan’s expense, pointing out that India’s involvement is limited and that the conflict mainly concerns Pakistan and Afghanistan. Sinha highlights that the Taliban will likely seek assistance from India while maintaining relations with other powers like China, Russia, Iran, and Gulf nations to preserve autonomy.
Trade and Connectivity Challenges
India has reinstated air freight services between Kabul and cities like Delhi and Amritsar, with bilateral trade reaching approximately $908 million in the 2025-26 fiscal year. Meanwhile, trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan has sharply declined amid border closures. Despite these developments, India’s access to Afghanistan faces geographic challenges. India aims to use Iran’s Chabahar port for better connectivity, but regional instability and Iran’s internal conflicts constrain this ambition.
Professor Gulshan Sachdeva highlighted that political instability in Afghanistan and sanctions on Iran limit regional trade integration prospects. He also mentioned that despite India’s efforts, Pakistan has historically blocked Afghanistan’s attempts to access the Indian market. Russia and China appear better positioned to influence Afghanistan’s regional economic links currently.
Pakistan’s Security Concerns and Regional Dynamics
Pakistan views India’s growing engagement with the Taliban as a security threat. Pakistani diplomats at the United Nations accused India of supporting the Taliban with material and logistical aid to carry out attacks against Pakistan, allegations India denies. Pakistan also accuses India of backing militant groups such as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army, claims India rejects. The Taliban likewise denies providing Afghan territory for attacks on Pakistan.
Security expert Ayesha Siddiqa says Pakistan perceives a security squeeze from both sides and views closer Kabul-New Delhi relations as a potential dual-front threat. Despite India gaining more operational space in Afghanistan due to deteriorating Pakistan-Taliban ties, the Taliban is unlikely to rely exclusively on India, opting to balance relations regionally.
