Russia is advocating for a trilateral summit involving U.S. political figures Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to address the ongoing war in Ukraine without Ukraine or the European Union at the table. Moscow envisions this meeting, potentially held alongside the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China, as a platform to secure a peace deal favorable to Russia.
The Kremlin proposes this format reflecting its preference to negotiate directly with Washington and Beijing, excluding Kyiv and Brussels. Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the necessity of Ukraine making territorial concessions and that Russian interests must be prioritized for meaningful negotiations to proceed.
Moscow’s Diplomatic Strategy and China’s Role
According to Kremlin officials, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine may resume at a technical level after November 10, possibly in Abu Dhabi, focusing on postwar security architecture. However, Moscow’s broader diplomatic ambition lies in orchestrating a summit with Trump and Xi, signaling its aspiration to be recognized as a major global power on par with the United States and China.
Experts suggest China’s participation is primarily symbolic, allowing Beijing to maintain strategic ambiguity while avoiding direct responsibility for Ukraine’s future. Researchers from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center suggest China seeks vague language in Summit outcomes, preserving flexibility to align its stance with evolving developments in Ukraine.
Strategic Interests and Regional Implications
Some analysts propose that China and Russia share overlapping interests in promoting an alternative security framework across Eurasia, desiring to reduce Western military presence and NATO’s sway in Europe and Asia. Diminishing U.S. influence and military assistance to Ukraine could strengthen Russia’s position on the battlefield and weaken European confidence in U.S. NATO leadership.
Additionally, Beijing appears focused on preserving Putin’s political survival, given Russia’s strategic importance as a low-cost energy provider and aligned foreign policy partner. China may continue indirect backing of Russia’s military without pressing for an immediate end to the conflict.
Implications of Excluding Ukraine and Europe
The exclusion of Ukraine and the EU from proposed summit talks highlights Beijing’s view of Ukraine’s limited bargaining power and Europe’s comparatively diminished influence. Nevertheless, experts argue that European nations continue to wield significant leverage due to financial support to Ukraine and defense cooperation, which bolsters Ukraine’s resilience against Russian advances.
Any agreement among the U.S., Russia, and China is likely to confront the realities on the ground, where Ukraine’s agency remains a decisive factor independent of diplomatic pressures. Thus, the proposed summit format underscores geopolitical rivalries but may not fully determine the conflict’s outcome.
