Updated:
Jul 2, 2026 , 06:31 PM ET
• 4 min read
The Storm are riding a modest two-game win streak, but our WNBA expert expects them to hit a wall in Phoenix tonight, backing the Mercury to play spoiler at home.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Phoenix Mercury guard Kahleah Copper.
After enduring a brutal 11-game losing streak, the Seattle Storm proved their ceiling by knocking off top-five powerhouses New York and Atlanta in back-to-back games.
Their next test comes tonight in Phoenix. With All-Star Alyssa Thomas returning to the lineup following a one-game suspension, my Storm vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks back the host team to play inspired basketball and cool down a surging Seattle squad on Thursday, July 2.
- UPDATE: Added Alyssa Thomas prop!
Storm vs Mercury prediction
Storm vs Mercury best bet: Mercury -3.5 (-110)
The Seattle Storm have dropped eight straight road games, largely because their offense has stalled.
They’re averaging just 75 points while shooting 39.8% from the field, and 31.4% from three on this skid.
The Phoenix Mercury have won three consecutive meetings with Seattle, including both this season, holding the Storm to just 38% shooting each time.
With assist leader Alyssa Thomas back in the lineup, the Mercury’s offense should be more efficient, and I like their defense to again throw Seattle off rhythm on the road.
I’d happily back the Mercury as long as 5.5-point favorites.
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Storm vs Mercury same-game parlay
Kahleah Copper is on a nice scoring binge. The 10th-year pro was the Mercury’s leading scorer in an 89-80 win over Toronto, picking up the slack for a suspended Thomas with 27 points.
That makes it five times in six games she’s gone for at least 20 points, including 41 against the Sparks.
Rookie Flau’jae Johnson is coming off her two best scoring games of the year, dropping 24 on Atlanta after scoring 28 against New York.
But those efforts were both at home. She’s struggled on the road this year, averaging just 11 points on 34% shooting. Her streak screeches to a halt on Thursday.
Storm vs Mercury SGP
- Mercury -3.5
- Kahleah Copper Over 18.5 points
- Flau’jae Johnson Under 12.5 points
Storm vs Mercury player prop pick
Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 assists (-110)
Prior to her suspension, Thomas was keeping her teammates well fed with a WNBA-best 8.4 dimes per contest.
She has recorded at least nine dimes in six of her last seven games — and one of those was against Seattle.
Eric Rosales’ 2026 Transparency Record
- Best bet: 6-7, -0.58 units
- SGP: 0-12, -12 units
- Player prop: 1-0, +1.05 units
Storm vs Mercury odds
- Spread: Storm +3.5 | Mercury -3.5
- Moneyline: Storm +145 | Mercury -170
- Over/Under: Over 167.5 | Under 167.5
Storm vs Mercury trend
Eleven of the Mercury’s last 12 home games have gone Over. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Storm vs Mercury
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Thursday, July 2, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | CW Seattle, Mercury+ |
Storm vs Mercury latest injuries
Storm: Ezi Magbegor (Out), Jordan Horston (Day-to-Day).
Mercury: Natasha Mack (Out), Sami Whitcomb (Out), Monique Akoa Makani (Day-to-Day).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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