New polls show the Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remains very tight with four months until the November midterm election.
Looking at the four most recent independent polls between June 1 and 21st, they show Paxton ahead of Talarico by a hair-splitting 1.25 percentage points. Paxton has 45.75%, and Talarico has 44.5%.
President Trump and other Republican leaders, including Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, have said they will campaign in Texas for Paxton. As previously reported, Paxton reportedly said during a recent tele-town hall that Republicans will hold a special midterm convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.
A source told CBS News Texas that the first two weeks of the facility have been reserved by the RNC, but it has not been officially booked yet.
Republican Michael Williams, a former Texas Railroad Commissioner and former Texas Education Agency Commissioner, told CBS News Texas that the President should come to the Lone Star State, starting right away, because he motivates the grassroots.
“I think he needs to pitch a tent in Texas,” said Williams. “He needs to change his voter registration from Florida and move somewhere in Texas. He needs to be here on the regular, campaigning for Attorney General Paxton.”
Williams praised the idea of a midterm convention in Dallas.
“Conventions energize your voters and energize your volunteers. It gives you an opportunity to get free TV time for your candidates. That would be a great idea,” he said.
After months of speculation, the President endorsed Paxton over incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn on the second day of early voting for the primary runoff. Paxton won by a landslide, 28 percentage points. Senate Republican leaders had urged Mr. Trump to back Cornyn because they believed he would have easily defeated Talarico, while Paxton would have a tougher hill to climb.
Williams said, “He put his thumb on the scale. He broke it. He owns it. Therefore, in order to make sure that we not only win Texas, that we do not lose the U.S. Senate, that we do not change the narrative about Texas and Texas Republican victories, he needs to be here.”
During the midterm election, Williams said he believes Texas is ground zero.
“The narrative has always been that we’re red, that we’re redder than red. Democrats don’t have a chance in Texas. The last thing we want to do is to give Democrats one inkling of an idea that they can win a statewide race in Texas,” said Williams.
“If you lose Texas, it’s my sense that you’ll lose one or more of those other five U.S. Senate seats that are up for election right now. But this is one that Democrats have not won,” he added. “Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate race since Lloyd Bentsen won in 1988. They haven’t won a statewide race of any kind since 1994.”
While Republicans in Texas have had a structural advantage for decades, Williams said this year the party can’t be complacent.
“This is a different cycle. In this particular cycle, it is extremely important for Republicans to mend the sort of division between Senator Cornyn and [Attorney] General Paxton and his voters,” Williams added. “Paxton is going to have to work really hard to make sure that those 30% of voters who voted for Senator Cornyn to, number one, show up and, number two, vote in the U.S. Senate race, as well as those other down-ballot races, and vote for Paxton. That’s going to take some humility on the General’s part. There are certain Republicans who right now are saying I don’t know if I can vote for A.G. Paxton.”
During a conversation with Patrick on his newly launched podcast called “Lt. Dan”, Paxton said he hopes to get together with Cornyn.
“If it’s up to me, we will. You have to have both parties willing,” said Paxton. “I don’t know what John is going to decide. I haven’t heard back from him. I’d be happy to talk to him. I’d love to have his help and support.”
While Cornyn has not endorsed Paxton individually, he has repeatedly said he supports the Republican ticket.
Williams said he doubts Cornyn will back Paxton.
“That full-throated endorsement is not coming, so, at this point, I think it’s less about what the Senator does and more about what the AG does,” Williams said. “The AG has to go back and rally Cornyn voters. He has to speak directly to traditional conservatives, maybe I should call them the Bushites. He has to talk to that part of the party that built this party and make sure they’re on board going forward.”
Ad Impact Politics estimates the projected overall political ad spending in Texas this year will total $850 million. That’s nearly $290 million higher than originally thought last year.
In the Senate race alone, Ad Impact Politics predicts $446 million will be spent when it’s all said and done.
Talarico began airing a new ad in many Texas media markets last week, including the DFW market. It’s called “Drowning” and focuses on lowering costs.
Paxton released his own ad called “Hypocrite”, which focuses on Talarico’s record. It aired in the Corpus Christi market, where Texas Democrats held their party convention, which wrapped up Saturday.
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