In September, the capture of Yemen’s Perim Island by Iran-backed Houthi rebels brought one of the Middle East’s key conflicts perilously close to Africa. This strategic island controls the narrowest point of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, located just 20 kilometers from Djibouti.
The move prompted a counteroffensive by Yemeni forces and their Saudi allies in early October, as Houthi attacks on merchant vessels intensified following the onset of the Gaza war in 2023. The escalating conflict poses significant challenges to African countries reliant on maritime trade through this region.
Economic and Humanitarian Impacts on Djibouti and Ethiopia
Djibouti, despite its small size and predominantly Muslim population of just over a million, plays an essential role as a commercial and military hub. It supports several foreign military bases and serves as a primary transshipment port. The disruption caused by increased security risks has led to shipping insurers nearly doubling rates, dissuading many ships from using the Red Sea and Suez Canal routes and driving up costs for essential building materials.
Concurrently, Djibouti has seen an immediate humanitarian impact with at least 3,700 refugees fleeing Yemen’s conflict since September 10, primarily women and children arriving in the arid northern Obock region. Relief agencies warn of escalating needs for clean water and aid in a region struggling with scarce resources.
Ethiopia, the world’s most populous landlocked country, depends on Djibouti’s ports for about 95% of its trade. The spike in shipping costs exacerbates Ethiopia’s economic strain, already aggravated by conflict in its northern Tigray region, which threatens vital supply corridors. Restrictions on fuel and fertilizer imports linked to wider Middle Eastern crises have forced periods of rationing, pushing Ethiopia toward longer-term goals of reducing dependence on imported goods.
Potential Regional Security Threats and Alliances
The conflict heightens regional tensions as diplomatic ties have fractured, notably between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The precarious status of Eritrea’s port of Assab and ongoing military advances in northern Ethiopia raise the risk of broader conflict spillovers, potentially affecting safe passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and surrounding waters.
Security experts also express concern over potential cooperation between the Shiite Houthis and Somalia-based Sunni extremist group Al-Shabab. United by opposition to Israel and the United States, this cooperation could complicate security dynamics throughout the Horn of Africa.
African Diplomatic Responses and Shifting Trade Routes
In response, African members of the UN Security Council—Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, and Somalia—held an emergency meeting in September, calling for unimpeded maritime navigation and a peaceful resolution to the Yemen conflict under UN auspices.
Some African countries are strategically repositioning. Ports in Kenya and Tanzania, for instance, are gaining appeal as alternative transshipment hubs. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s Dangote Group has announced a refinery project in Kenya, signaling efforts to boost regional economic resilience amid high oil prices and disrupted trade flows.
The unfolding situation underscores Africa’s vulnerability and adaptability in the face of escalating conflicts in the Red Sea region, with significant implications for trade, security, and humanitarian stability.
