Quick Read
Morgan Stanley lifted its RKLB bull-case target to $293, implying 260% upside as the stock sits 46% below its 52-week high.
The $8 billion Iridium deal and a $2.20 billion backlog give Rocket Lab rare multi-year revenue visibility as a high-growth space platform.
Hitting $293 demands an on-time Neutron debut, Iridium closing by mid-2027, and Golden Dome’s $151 billion opportunity converting to signed contracts.
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Shares of Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) have been on a wild ride lately, with the stock down 17.94% over the past week and 24.23% over the past month as the broader space complex has sold off hard since SpaceX’s June 2026 IPO. Even after the pullback, RKLB is still up 19.57% year to date, 114.53% over the past 12 months, and a staggering 620.92% over five years.
At $81.45, the stock sits roughly 46% below its 52-week high of $151. This is the fourth drawdown of 40% or more on RKLB’s climb from under $4 per share. Most of the Street sits at a consensus target of $114.10. Then there is Morgan Stanley, which just lifted its bull-case target to $293, implying roughly 260% upside and towering 157% above consensus.
Reaching $293 by year-end 2026 would require Neutron’s on-time debut, Iridium accretion, and major Golden Dome awards converting to signed dollars.
Morgan Stanley’s $293 RKLB Prediction
Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and $105 base case while pushing its bull case to $293, citing the growth runway of Rocket Lab’s space-systems division and the $8 billion Iridium acquisition announced June 29. The bank points to Q1 FY26 revenue of $200.35 million, up 63.5% year over year, a record $2.20 billion backlog, and a record 16-hour, 42-minute responsive launch on the U.S. Space Force VICTUS HAZE mission.
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Key Drivers of RKLB Stock Performance
Neutron and the defense flywheel. Neutron’s debut is targeted later in 2026, unlocking medium-lift revenue and layered awards like the Space Based Interceptor program under Golden Dome. Recurring defense contracts provide multi-decade cash flow visibility.
Vertical integration through M&A. The Iridium deal, Geost’s $325 million sensor buy, Mynaric, and Motiv turn Rocket Lab into an end-to-end space platform with 2.5 million recurring subscribers, feeding durable long-term earnings power.
Backlog visibility. A $2.20 billion backlog, 70-plus contracted missions, and the $816 million SDA contract give retirement investors rare multi-year revenue visibility in a high-growth name.
