Almost half of UK voters support the idea of the country rejoining the European Union, a recent megapoll conducted by the Messina Group (TMG) shows, lending momentum to Labour figures considering a shift in policy on Brexit. The poll suggests that renegotiating the UK’s ties with the EU and campaigning for membership could potentially raise Labour’s vote share by as much as seven percentage points.
Labour’s leader, Andy Burnham, has publicly expressed a preference to explore rejoining the EU following the next election, announcing a review of Britain’s future relationship options with Europe at the recent Labour conference. While his stance has energized some within the party, it has also triggered caution among Cabinet members, particularly those representing constituencies that voted to leave the EU and who emphasize the risks of reopening Brexit divisions.
Key Findings on Public Support and Political Impact
The TMG poll, which surveyed 11,461 people between September 12 and 24, weighted by the 2016 referendum results, found that 49% of respondents favored rejoining the EU immediately or within the next few years, with 28.5% opposed. Other options—such as maintaining the current relationship but reducing trade barriers, joining a customs union, or pursuing associate membership—also received substantial support, generally ranging from 42% to 48%. The least popular option was the UK moving further away from the EU, favored by only 27.9%.
When political messaging around these options was tested, Labour’s vote share increased by between 4.3 and 7.4 points across all scenarios promoting closer EU ties, mainly attracting voters from the Green Party and Liberal Democrats. Additionally, a majority of voters prioritized trading with the EU over the US or China, preferred retaining the British pound, and supported remaining part of the European Convention on Human Rights.
Internal Party Views and Political Challenges
Despite public opinion shifts, some Cabinet ministers have voiced reservations about pushing too aggressively for re-entry. Labour figures such as Deputy Leader Lucy Powell warned against extending beyond existing EU resets, while others highlighted uncertainties and costs associated with rejoining. The concern is that pursuing a renewed relationship with the EU risks alienating Brexit-supporting voters and could invigorate political opponents like Nigel Farage.
Several Cabinet members from Leave-voting areas underscore a need for cautious, carefully framed arguments about the national interest without reigniting divisive debates. Some express skepticism about whether re-entry terms would meaningfully improve daily life but acknowledge that, given global dynamics, a closer EU relationship is increasingly necessary.
Broader Implications and Next Steps
The findings bolster efforts within Downing Street and the broader Labour Party to at least commit to negotiating EU re-entry in future election platforms, an objective Burnham highlighted as a lifetime goal. The research is also being used to gauge public readiness for such a shift and to inform political strategy amidst ongoing debates about Brexit’s legacy and Britain’s global positioning.
While polls show a significant portion of the electorate views Brexit as a failure and supports reconsidering EU membership, deep divisions remain, notably on issues of sovereignty and immigration control. Consequently, Labour faces a complex balancing act in responding to evolving public sentiment while managing internal party dynamics and electoral risks.
