It all comes down to this. A trip to the NBA Finals is on the line on Saturday, May 30, with Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs visiting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder for a winner-take-all Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. The winner of Saturday’s matchup will face off with the New York Knicks in the NBA Finals. The Spurs kept their season alive with a blowout win in Game 6 in which they held SGA to just 15 points. The Thunder have been dominant at home at 40-8, including the postseason, but the Spurs are 4-3 in OKC this year, including a Game 1 win in double overtime. The Spurs are trying to get back to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2014, while the Thunder are trying to keep their repeat dreams alive after winning it all last season. Tipoff from the Paycom Center is set for 8 p.m. ET, and the Thunder are 3.5-point home favorites, per the latest FanDuel Sportsbook NBA odds on Saturday.
Things look good for the Spurs in the latest NBA injury report, but the same can’t be said of the Thunder. Jalen Williams, who was key as the No. 2 option for OKC last postseason, is out for Game 7 despite returning in limited fashion in Game 6. The Thunder will also be without Ajay Mitchell for this winner-take-all clash.
With the aid of the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, as well as odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, we’ve put together a three-leg same-game parlay for Spurs vs. Thunder Game 7. The model entered the second week of the conference finals of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-10 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
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Spurs vs. Thunder Game 7 same-game parlay picks
- Thunder money line
- Under 212.5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 38.5 points + assists
Thunder money line
The Thunder owned the NBA’s best record this regular season, and a big reason for that was their success at home. In Oklahoma City, the Thunder went 34-7 in the regular season and are 6-1 at home this postseason. That lone loss came to the Spurs in double overtime Game 1, but OKC rebounded with consecutive home wins. In Game 7, the SportsLine model thinks the Thunder’s home dominance will continue as they win in 60% of simulations.
Under 212.5
Game 7 has the lowest total of any game this series as sportsbooks clearly envision a defensive-minded effort from both parties with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. The first three games of this series all easily cleared this line, but two of the last three games finished Under 212.5, including Game 6. These are two of the best defensive teams the league has to offer, and the model thinks the Under will hit here. The Under hits in 57.8% of simulations.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 38.5 points + assists
The Spurs are alive in this series in part because they’ve been able to get the two-time MVP off his game on more than one occasion. SGA has gone Under 38.5 points + assists in four of six games so far, and he actually has more free throws made than field goals in this series. The Spurs held Gilgeous-Alexander to fewer than 20 points twice this series, and he’s shooting 37.9% from the field through the first six games. SGA has been good in terms of passing, as he’s averaging 8.8 per game. The model is taking the Under on his points + assists line, though, with a projection of 36.6 for Game 7.
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