Quick Read
NVDA posted $82 billion in revenue, up 85% year over year, with B200 systems sold out yet the stock sits 28% below its 52-week high.
AMD and Broadcom rally alongside NVDA as inference demand pulls the entire semiconductor and memory stack higher.
Jensen Huang sees $3 to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by decade’s end, with hyperscaler capex approaching $1.2 trillion as the primary fuel.
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NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) just posted the loudest quarter of the AI cycle. Revenue of $81.615 billion, up 85.23% year over year, and CEO Jensen Huang telling shareholders that “the buildout of AI factories, the largest infrastructure expansion in human history, is accelerating at extraordinary speed.”
Yet shares sit at $211.94, roughly 28% below the $236.26 52-week high. B200 systems are sold out. Can NVIDIA hit $300 by 2027?
What Is Holding NVIDIA Back Right Now
The stock is flat over the past month, down 0.3% from mid-July, and up about 13% year to date. That price action lags what an 85% revenue growth story usually delivers.
Two headwinds: China, where management assumed no Data Center compute revenue from China in the Q2 guide with no H20 shipments in Q1 versus $4.6 billion a year ago. Second, sentiment cooled. The composite score fell 17.65 points in the last seven days to 47.51. With a beta of 2.215, NVIDIA amplifies every macro wobble. The fundamentals are strong. The market is digesting.
Wall Street Sees 43% Upside. Our Model Says 22%.
Consensus target is $302.83, with 10 Strong Buy, 48 Buy, 2 Hold, and 1 Sell rating. Bullish sentiment sits at 95%. Our model is more measured. Base case of $259.34 implies 22.36% upside at 0.9 confidence, with an optimistic case of $269.94 and conservative $225.78.
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Our earnings growth contribution of +0.03 anchors on 2.145 YoY EPS growth that could stay elevated longer than the model assumes, because inference demand is running hotter than any prior cycle. Analysts anchoring to visible orders may still be too conservative.
The Path to $300 Per Share
Reaching $300 from today’s price of $211.94 would require a gain of 41.5%. With forward EPS of $8.26, a price of $300 implies a forward P/E of 36x. Our base case of $259.34 already implies 36x, meaning the bold target requires the same multiple applied to higher EPS delivery.
