Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: this is a huge series for the Orioles. It feels like we’ve said that over and over again this season, but I promise it’s true this time. The Orioles and Phillies play this weekend with the Orioles still on the fringes of the Wild Card race. The outcome of this series could be the difference in how Mike Elias handles things going into the trade deadline on Monday. This is a big one.
It’s hard to predict what will happen this weekend. The Phillies are a confusing team. They started their season 9-19 and fired their manager. Don Mattingly replaced him and they turned things around. But they have been on a bad run. They were just swept by the Marlins, who had lost 12 straight before the series. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games. But they have a 57-52 record, good for second in the NL East and a Wild Card spot.
The Phillies have been on a good run, with playoff appearances in each of the last four seasons. And they’ve been well-rounded, with both good hitters and good pitchers. This year, however, the hitting has taken a bit of a nosedive. Kyle Schwarber leads the lead in home runs and has .911 OPS. Bryce Harper has strong overall number, but has slumped for the past month. JT Realmuto? Stinks. Trea Turner? Bad. Alec Bohm? Nope. Brandon Marsh hasn’t been terrible, but he’s still very wet.
The starting pitching, however, has been among the best in baseball this season thanks to of Cristopher Sánchez, Zach Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo. The Orioles will face the first two this weekend. The quality drops off considerably after that, but when those are your top three guys, you’re going to win a lot of games.
The Phillies bullpen is very strong in the back half. Closer Jhoan Duran has a 100-mph fastball and a 37.6% strikeout rate. Orion Kerkering will walk anyone who holds still long enough, but he’s been very good at keeping runs off the board.
So which version of the Phillies team will we see this weekend? It’s hard to know, just as it’s hard to know which version of the Orioles will show. Either way, the trade deadline is on the other side of this series. So moves will be made.
TBD vs RHP Brandon Young (17 GS, 3.13 ERA / 3.74 FIP)
The Phillies haven’t announced their starter for game one, but it will not be Jesús Luzardo. That’s good news. He started on Wednesday. Sánchez would have been on regular rest for today, but they pushed him to tomorrow. They could go with Brian Keller as either the starter or the bulk reliever. We just have to wait and see.
Brandon Young continues his journey as the unlikely ace of the staff. He is coming off of 6.1 innings against Atlanta in which he allowed just one run on four hits.
Game 2: Saturday, 7:05 – MASN
LHP Cristopher Sánchez (22 GS, 2.73 ERA / 2.66 FIP) vs RHP Shane Baz (21 GS, 3.98 ERA / 3.47 FIP)
This is gonna be a tough one. The Orioles have struggled against lefties all year, and this guy is arguably the best lefty starter in the game. He has an excellent sinker that he relies on a lot. It has helped him reach his 58% ground-ball rate. He strikes out over 10 batters per nine innings as well, and barely walks anyone. He led the league in bWAR last season at 8.1, and currently leads this year at 5.6. I have to admit I don’t have high hopes for this one.
Baz keeps plugging along with solid start after solid start. On May 9th, he had a 5.48 ERA that he has slowly brought down. In his last start he gave up one earned run in 4.2 innings, which dropped his ERA below 4.00 for the first time this season.
Game 3: Sunday, 1:35 – MASN
RHP Zack Wheeler (17 GS, 2.53 ERA / 3.09 FIP) vs RHP Kyle Bradish (21 GS, 3.74 ERA / 3.87 FIP
At least he’s not a lefty? Wheeler has been with the Phillies since 2020 and is 36 years old, but hasn’t shown a sign that he’s slowing down. He is coming off of a bust in his last start (3 IP, 8 R vs the Marlins) but that kind of start has been an anomaly for him this year. He has a mid-90s fastball and is still striking out over 10 batters per nine innings. He will give up some homers, but with an opponent OBP of just .245, there aren’t a lot of baserunners to bring home; 11 of his 13 homers allowed have been solo shots.
This could be an incredible pitching matchup, or Kyle Bradish could pitch like he did on Friday against Detroit. He allowed five runs on ten hits and couldn’t get out of the fifth inning. We know he has ace stuff, we just don’t know if he’ll show it.
What say you? How many games of this series do you think the Orioles will win? Let us know in the comments.
