Tracking afternoon showers and storms Saturday, with more rain for the start of the school year

Radar:

Weekend Weather Pattern:

Our active seas breeze thunderstorm pattern stays with us. A weakness between two areas of high pressure creates the opportunity for more afternoon thunderstorms.

This pattern will increase the humidity and cloud cover which will lower temperatures to the mid-90s. Afternoon scattered storms will be possible through the mid-evening hours. A quick 1-2″ of rain will be possible with the strongest storms. Rain chances increase Sunday and Monday.

Saturday Rain Timeline:

A dry start Saturday morning, but by 2 pm showers and storms begin to pop up from the coast into Houston. Rain winds down for the Houston metro by 7 pm, but northern counties might have a lingering chance for showers until 10 pm.

Back to school forecast:

Be prepared to pack the umbrella in the kiddos’ backpack. The first day of school brings a chance for more widespread showers and storms. The increase in rain is due to a slug of thicker moisture from the Gulf swinging westward toward Texas.

Tracking the tropics:

August is the “real” start of the hurricane season. 93% of hurricanes form after August 3rd. However, this is not your typical hurricane season. With an incredibly strong El Nino the numbers will be kept way down this season. No storms are expected in the next 10 days and probably a little further than that. Wind shear in the Caribbean is the strongest it’s been since 1979. Oh, and there is some thick Saharan dust over the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center marking a tropical wave that will move off the coast of Africa early week, has a 20% chance of development over the next 7 Days. This is the only disturbance we are monitoring, otherwise the Atlantic basin remains quiet.

10 Day Forecast:

Temperatures slightly lower and rain changes go up. Our best chance of widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms is Sunday and Monday.