India’s traditional southwest monsoon, a critical source of annual rainfall, is becoming increasingly erratic, creating challenges for farmers, cities, and infrastructure. Since late July, heavy monsoon rains across India have caused floods, landslides, and lightning strikes, resulting in more than 100 deaths. According to reports, the northeastern state of Assam suffered the most, with over 120,000 people affected by flooding, while Kerala, Jammu and Kashmir, Bihar, and Jharkhand also experienced fatalities and widespread disruptions.
Experts attribute these increasing irregularities not to more rainfall overall but to changing rainfall patterns. Extended dry spells are followed by short, intense downpours that overwhelm rivers, drainage systems, and landscapes. This shift in monsoon behavior is linked partly to El Niño variability but primarily to underlying climate change driving greater atmospheric moisture and greater rainfall intensity.
Changing Patterns and Climate Science Perspectives
Senior research scientist Akshay Deoras of the UK’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science highlighted that while active and break spells in monsoon patterns have always existed, their intensity appears to be rising due to a warmer atmosphere’s increased moisture retention. Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, a climate scientist and former Ministry of Earth Sciences official, emphasized fundamental alterations in the monsoon’s characteristics, including more frequent short-duration extreme rainfall, longer dry periods, and variations in timing and intensity. Rajeevan described this as a structural shift in the monsoon system beyond natural variability.
Vulnerabilities in Agriculture and Urban Areas
India’s agriculture, which relies heavily on predictable monsoon timing and distribution, suffers from these changes. Extended dryness impairs sowing and soil moisture, while sudden heavy rains damage crops and wash away fields. Urban areas also face heightened risks because rapid construction reduces permeable surfaces, impairing natural drainage and increasing flood vulnerability. Dry, hardened soil after dry spells exacerbates flooding when intense rains arrive, as water runoff increases instead of replenishing groundwater.
Infrastructure and Policy Challenges in Addressing Extreme Weather
Deoras warned that India’s existing infrastructure, including drainage and flood management systems, remains largely geared toward historical seasonal rainfall averages rather than modern extreme event patterns. Though forecasting has improved, effective response to warnings—including actions like adjusting school schedules or restricting travel—remains critical. Environmental lawyer Ritwick Dutta criticized the lack of integration of climate change considerations into planning and construction processes, citing examples such as Pune, where projected rainfall increases have not been factored adequately into urban development plans.
Preparing for a New Climate Reality
The Centre for Science and Environment reported that extreme weather events affected India on 99% of monitored days in 2025, resulting in thousands of deaths, particularly during the monsoon. CSE Director General Sunita Narain stressed the urgency for embedding climate adaptation into development strategies. This includes redesigning infrastructure like cities, roads, and water systems to withstand more intense and unpredictable weather rather than relying on past climate patterns. Experts call for tailored adaptation measures such as improved urban flood management, modified agricultural practices, and enhanced water storage infrastructure. While India cannot alter the monsoon itself or global warming, strategic planning and climate-resilient infrastructure can mitigate emerging risks associated with the shifting monsoon regime.
