Twenty-five years after the September 11 terrorist attacks, Al-Qaeda’s central leadership has weakened significantly, but the extremist network has not vanished. Its regional offshoots continue to maintain influence in fragile states across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, sustaining the group’s presence despite major counterterrorism efforts.
Recently, the U.S. Department of the Treasury removed extremist preacher Abdullah al-Muhaysini and affiliated groups such as the Nusra Front and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons list. This move reflects a shift in U.S. policy regarding Syria but also highlights how prominent Al-Qaeda-linked entities have evolved over time.
Regional Branches Persist in Conflict Zones
After Al-Qaeda’s founder Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011, the organization adapted by decentralizing and focusing on local footholds rather than large-scale attacks on Western targets. Analysts note that countries with weak governance and ongoing conflicts, such as parts of Africa, Yemen, and Afghanistan, have provided fertile ground for these offshoots.
In the Sahel region, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has emerged as a major al-Qaeda affiliate, competing with the Islamic State’s local provinces for influence. For example, JNIM claimed responsibility for an attack on Niger’s international airport in Niamey in June 2026. Meanwhile, al-Shabab remains a powerful group in Somalia, and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) continues its presence in Yemen. Afghanistan is also still considered a safe haven for Al-Qaeda elements.
Shift from Spectacular Attacks to Local Influence
Experts emphasize a strategic shift away from orchestrating high-profile terror attacks toward cultivating local alliances, gaining influence in communities, and controlling territories. This localized approach allows branches like JNIM and al-Shabab to exploit ethnic and social conflicts in their regions, maintaining relevance through grassroots activities rather than large-scale coordinated attacks.
This shift reflects an ‘economy of violence,’ where armed groups profit from kidnappings, smuggling, and looting. Such financial incentives help jihadist factions recruit and maintain fighters, especially in vulnerable areas.
Competition with the Islamic State and Challenges Ahead
While Al-Qaeda has taken a long-term, gradual approach, the group faces competition from the Islamic State (IS), which attracts younger jihadists through more dramatic and media-visible attacks. However, IS’s expansion has been followed by setbacks and territorial losses, contrasting with Al-Qaeda’s continued, if transformed, existence.
Concerns remain about Al-Qaeda’s ability to replenish its ranks as older members age, with its brand less appealing in Western regions. Furthermore, since the Hamas attacks on Israel in October 2023, Al-Qaeda’s visibility in major regional conflicts has diminished compared to actors like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran-backed groups.
Despite these challenges, analysts agree that the threat from Al-Qaeda and its affiliates persists due to their adaptability and local entrenchment, underscoring the complex and evolving nature of global terrorism more than two decades after 9/11.
