Key Takeaways
- Sandisk fell nearly 32% in three sessions as investors reassessed AI chip demand and China competition.
- Fiscal fourth-quarter revenues are guided to be $7.75B-$8.25B, with adjusted EPS projected at $30-$33.
- Five supply partnerships provide over $42B in minimum revenues, backed by guarantees above $11B.
NAND flash memory player Sandisk Corp. (SNDK – Free Report) has been under intense selling pressure lately, tumbling nearly 32% over the past three trading sessions despite surging around 360% year to date. The stock closed down over 14% yesterday at $1,096.10.
The sell-off comes just days before Sandisk’s fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings report on Aug. 5, when investors will be looking for confirmation that strong demand, healthy pricing and long-term customer commitments remain intact.
The recent plunge has left investors wondering whether the pullback merely reflects profit-taking after the stock’s extraordinary run or whether the company’s long-term investment case has weakened.
The weakness has not been limited to Sandisk. Memory-chip peers Micron Technology (MU – Free Report) and Western Digital Corporation (WDC – Free Report) have also fallen over the past three sessions as investors reassess the outlook for AI-related semiconductor companies.
3-Day Price Performance Comparison
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Why Is SNDK Stock Falling?
One of the biggest triggers behind the recent decline has been the successful Shanghai listing of Chinese memory manufacturer CXMT. The blockbuster IPO has renewed investor concerns that China could become a much stronger competitor in the global memory market over the coming years.
While CXMT currently manufactures DRAM chips and does not directly compete with Sandisk’s NAND flash business, investors fear that China’s ambitions may eventually extend into NAND as well. If new supply enters the market in the future, pricing could come under pressure, potentially weighing on profitability across the memory industry.
Investor sentiment has also weakened across the broader AI semiconductor space. Massive AI investments by hyperscalers have fueled strong demand for memory chips and enterprise storage, driving sharp gains in stocks like Sandisk, Micron and Western Digital. Over the past year, shares of SNDK, MU and WDC have rocketed 2,516%, 637% and 572%, respectively.
However, investors are increasingly questioning whether this pace of AI spending can be sustained. If technology companies slow their AI infrastructure investments, demand for chips and storage solutions could moderate, weighing on the entire semiconductor supply chain.
Why The Market May Be Overreacting
Sandisk’s underlying business remains solid. Datacenter revenues jumped 233% sequentially last quarter to $1.47 billion, powered by enterprise SSDs. Management guided fiscal fourth quarter revenues of $7.75-$8.25 billion, above the $5.95 billion delivered in the fiscal third quarter. The company is also preparing to introduce QLC-based enterprise SSD products, which should further strengthen its product portfolio and improve its revenue mix over time. Adjusted EPS guidance of $30-$33 would mark another sharp sequential jump from the $23.41 posted in the fiscal third quarter.
Another encouraging development is Sandisk’s growing base of long-term customer agreements. Sandisk signed three “New Business Model” supply partnerships in the fiscal third quarter of 2026 and two more early in the fiscal fourth quarter, together providing more than $42 billion in minimum contractual revenues, backed by financial guarantees exceeding $11 billion. That kind of multiyear, guarantee-backed backlog instills confidence in the stock.
The balance sheet backs the growth story up. Sandisk exited the last-reported quarter with $3.74 billion in cash and cash equivalents and zero debt. Rising use of NAND flash in AI inference, KV cache and retrieval-augmented generation workloads is also expanding demand for low-latency flash beyond traditional storage use cases. The upcoming QLC Stargate product shipments should further improve the company’s revenue mix over time.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SNDK’s EPS has moved north over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bottom Line
Sandisk’s recent sell-off appears to be driven more by sentiment than by a deterioration in its business fundamentals. The company continues to benefit from strong AI-driven storage demand, improving profitability, a healthier balance sheet and long-term customer agreements that provide greater revenue visibility than in previous memory cycles.
The upcoming earnings report remains a key near-term catalyst, and investors should closely watch management’s commentary on NAND pricing, enterprise SSD demand and the pace of AI spending. If the company reaffirms its outlook, the recent correction could prove to be an attractive entry point rather than the beginning of a prolonged downturn.
While near-term volatility cannot be ruled out and Sandisk shares could even slip below the $1,000 threshold, the company’s long-term growth story remains intact. For investors with a long-term investment horizon, the sharp pullback looks more like a buying opportunity than a reason to stay on the sidelines. SNDK stock sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here.
Wall Street’s average price target for SNDK stock implies more than 100% upside from current levels.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
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