It’s Dennis Gates vs. Jai Lucas in St. Louis.
Can the Tigers’ head coach get his second NCAA Tournament win since arriving in Columbia, and his first since 2023?
Missouri basketball is a 10-seed and will take on 7-seed Miami in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament on Friday at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. The tipoff time for the Tigers’ March Madness opener in its home state will be announced by the NCAA either Sunday night or Monday morning.
Mizzou (20-12) is going to the Big Dance for the third time under Gates, who has been in Columbia for four seasons. This marks the first time that Mizzou has gone to the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back years since a streak of five straight appearances.
There will be some familiar face coaching from the opposing bench. Former Missouri assistant Charlton ‘C.Y.’ Young is now an assistant on Lucas’ first-year staff in Miami.
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Can MU book a spot in the second round against either 2-seed Purdue or 15-seed Queens?
Here are our predictions for Missouri against Miami in Round 1:
Mizzou’s point guard play will be heavily tested
Missouri needs to get more out of T.O. Barrett and Anthony Robinson II to be successful moving forward in March, and they’ll get an early test from one of Robinson’s high school teammates, Tre Donaldson.
The Hurricanes’ point guard and Michigan transfer is one of Evan Mityakawa’s No. 50-ranked most-valuable player in the country, according to the analytics site’s Bayesian Performance Rating measurement. He’s been an offensive weapon with 16.7 points and 5.8 assists per game this season.
So, Missouri will need the most out of its guards.
Missouri’s size will be important for success
Mizzou’s rotation is going to be bigger from essentially the two through the five. The Hurricanes don’t have a 7-footer on the roster like MU does. In lineups with Shawn Phillips Jr., Trent Pierce and Mark Mitchell on the floor, Missouri should be able to wield a length advantage.
Can Mizzou make that count?
Miami attempts and makes less 3-pointers than any team in the ACC. There will be a battle going on inside the arc. If Mizzou can put its size to use, that’s a good place to be.
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Mark Mitchell vs. Malik Reneau will be fun
Whenever these two get matched up, it’s going to be fun to watch.
Malik Reneau is a 6-foot-9 Indiana transfer who is a team-high 18.8 points and also 6.6 rebounds per game. Mark Mitchell is also 6-9 and leads Mizzou in points (18.3), rebounds (5.2) and assists (3.6).
This is another pivotal battle. Mitchell certainly needs help from his teammates, which hasn’t been there for the past few games. But whoever has the bigger night between Mitchell and Reneau will have a good chance of landing a second-round matchup.
2026 March Madness first-round score prediction for Missouri basketball
Score prediction: Miami 83, Missouri 79
Miami (25-8) was a good ACC outfit this year, winning 13 games in conference and only losing three times since the beginning of February. That included two losses to top-10 Virginia and one to Louisville.
Mizzou slipped and slid its way into the postseason, and we need the Tigers to prove that they can win again this season. There have been too many inconsistencies from MU to pick it in good faith. It’s also worth remembering that there aren’t many coaches who know Gates and Missouri’s scheme like Young, now back in his hometown at Miami.
Missouri has almost exclusively played close games since the calendar turned to 2026. We expect another one in St. Louis, and maybe a home crowd helps it get across the line. We want to see it before we believe it.
