Support for far-right politics in Europe has become increasingly entrenched, with populist and nationalist parties participating in governments in countries like Croatia, Czechia, Italy, and Finland, and leading in polls in Austria, Belgium, France, and Germany. Approximately 25% of European voters backed far-right parties in their most recent national elections, representing a fivefold increase since 1995.
Recent electoral successes include a historic victory for Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Saxony-Anhalt. However, setbacks have occurred in the Netherlands, Hungary, and Sweden, where far-right vote shares declined. Regardless, far-right ideas, especially on immigration and law enforcement, exert a notable influence on mainstream European politics.
Upcoming Elections and Political Implications
Crucial national elections scheduled in Spain, France, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Slovakia, Poland, and Italy over the next year could significantly influence Europe’s political trajectory. While some far-right parties have softened rhetoric to appeal more broadly—such as Giorgia Meloni in Italy and Marine Le Pen in France—more extreme factions like Germany’s AfD maintain hardline stances without moderation.
Political analysts highlight that if far-right parties gain power simultaneously in major countries such as Spain, Italy, France, and Poland, the European Union could face formidable challenges. These may include paralysis in decision-making, especially on the EU budget, expansion, climate policies, and immigration, thereby slowing progress on key issues.
Relations With External Actors and Influence Campaigns
There is evidence of financial and indirect support flowing to far-right groups from outside Europe. For instance, a 2023 European parliament report documented approximately $1.18 billion funneled into organizations opposing LGBTQ+ rights from 2019 to 2023. A declassified 2022 U.S. intelligence report identified covert Russian funding exceeding $300 million to foreign political parties since 2014.
Additionally, the U.S. State Department has allocated millions to European conservative organizations, aiming to promote “civilizational self-confidence,” with some funds directed at groups emphasizing restrictive migration policies. Social media platforms also play a role in far-right mobilization, with documented networks spreading extremist disinformation and public endorsements complicating political discourse.
Threats to Democracy and Institutional Stability
Experts differentiate between far-right parties operating within democratic norms and those challenging the system outright. For example, Germany’s AfD exhibits extreme-right characteristics, including racist and homophobic rhetoric and occasional alignment with Nazi symbolism, prompting concern about threats to democratic values.
Despite worries, analysts do not foresee the collapse of the EU or NATO due to far-right electoral gains. Instead, these institutions may become more fragmented and ineffectual as far-right governments use veto powers or ignore EU laws, potentially eroding cohesion from within.
Mainstream Parties and Voter Discontent
Far-right success is partly attributed to mainstream parties’ failure to address pressing voter concerns such as the cost of living, housing crises, and job insecurity. This neglect has created openings for far-right parties to exploit public fears and grievances, often blaming immigrants or minority groups.
Some grassroots movements addressing local issues have gained traction, influencing political outcomes in countries like Spain and Hungary. However, mainstream parties face increasing pressure to tackle these fundamental socio-economic problems if they hope to counter far-right advances.
