Preview: UFC Baku Prelims – Ofli vs. Reyes

BETTING ODDS: Reyes (-160); Ofli (+135)

The resurgent Ofli will try for his third straight Octagon win
against Reyes, who made his successful UFC debut in February.

Coming out of Season 32 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” Ofli looked like
a late bloomer—he was already 31 at the “TUF” finale—but a
featherweight prospect with some upside. He is a stocky, powerful
athlete with an aggressive style, equally adept at looking for big
punches on the feet or wrestling and grappling foes into the
dirt.

Losses in first two UFC bouts to fellow finalist Mairon
Santos and Muhammadjon
Naimov appeared to show the limitations of Ofli’s skill set and
approach: his hard-charging style on the feet flung him face-first
into Santos’ superior firepower for six minutes and change, while
the loss to Naimov saw him outmuscled and outgrinded (is that a
word?) by a foe who was both a bit bigger and a more efficient
wrestler. Ofli has since bounced back with a pair of wins over
Ricardo
Ramos and Zha Yi, even if
the Yi fight was a terrible decision, and has the chance to go over
.500 in one of the UFC’s toughest divisions here.

Like Ofli, Reyes was a relative latecomer to top-level promotions,
winning on
Dana White’s Contender Serieslast fall, then making his UFC
debut as a 32-year-old rookie. Facing an aging but tough veteran in
Douglas
Silva de Andrade, Reyes survived some adversity on the feet
before hammering the Brazilian nearly unrecognizable with
ground-and-pound, earning a first-round TKO.

Reyes is a big featherweight who works at a steady pace and tends
to build throughout a fight. His leg kicks and diligent body work
reinforce the idea that he wants to wear his opponent out and drag
them into deep waters. While he is not a particularly adept
wrestler offensively or defensively, the Colombian is a good
submission grappler who can sometimes spend too much time attacking
from his back when he might be better off trying to get back up.
However, against Silva de Andrade, Reyes was all business on the
ground, perhaps indicating that he has turned a corner.

Ofli is a slight underdog here, and if the Yi decision had gone the
other way, the line would probably be a good bit wider, but I like
his chances. Reyes will be the bigger fighter, but doesn’t tend to
employ his size in the kind of bully performances that have given
Ofli trouble in the past. And while Ofli lost that decision to
Naimov, he took over the fight and started winning as soon as he
ramped up his workrate and aggression, lessons that have clearly
informed all of his subsequent performances. The pick is Ofli by
decision.

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