Prediction, game preview Week 4

Texas football may have improved to 2-1 last week with a 27-10 victory over UTEP, but the mood in Royal-Memorial Stadium didn’t feel very celebratory.

Quarterback Arch Manning struggled to complete the easiest of passes and at one point threw 10 straight incompletions. Starting running back CJ Baxter left the game after one carry with a hamstring injury, and neither Jerrick Gibson nor James Simon — who had 18 and 17 carries, respectively — averaged 4 yards a carry in his absence. Boos rained down from the stands, especially during the offense’s struggles in the second quarter.

The No. 8 Longhorns have one more nonconference chance to please the home fans Saturday against Sam Houston in the season’s first night game. After that, they’ll hit the road until Vanderbilt comes to visit Nov. 4.

Despite a slow start this season, Sam Houston (0-3) has made quick strides since moving up from the FCS to Conference USA three years ago. After a 3-9 campaign in their first FBS season in 2023, the Bearkats went 10-4 last year and beat Georgia Southern in the New Orleans Bowl. First-year coach Phil Longo, who took over for longtime coach K.C. Keeler, will likely try to follow the formula used by San Jose State and UTEP against Texas: clog up the running lanes with defensive stunts and slants, make Manning use his arm instead of his legs and try and make it a second-half game.

Here’s a full scouting report for the Texas Longhorns vs the Sam Houston Bearkats.

Where: Royal-Memorial Stadium.

TV/radio: SEC Network, 1300, 98.1, 105.3 (Spanish)

Weather: Hot and sunny with highs in the mid-90s and a slight chance of a shower.

MORE: How new starter Connor Stroh can strengthen the Texas Longhorns’ offensive line

All-time: Texas leads series 1-0

Last meeting:  Texas 56, Sam Houston 3 (Sept. 30, 2006)

Most memorable meeting:  Texas 56, Sam Houston 3, 2006.

As strange as it looks in hindsight, Colt McCoy — the Longhorns’ all-time leader in virtually every passing category — had to fight and claw for his starting job in 2006. The tight battle between the then-redshirt freshman McCoy and true freshman Jevan Snead was evident in the only meeting with the Bearkats; McCoy earned the start and threw for 178 yards and two touchdowns on 13-of-15 passing, but Snead shined as well with 122 yards and a touchdown on 7-of-8 passing. McCoy would win the job and Snead eventually transferred to Ole Miss.

Last game: Lost to Hawaii 37-20 (Sept. 6)

Players to watch: QB Mabrey Mettauer, a former four-star recruit from The Woodlands, followed Longo from his previous position as Wisconsin’s offensive coordinator and split duties behind center with Landyn Locke against Hawaii. In that game, the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Mettauer threw for 91 yards on 12-of-18 passing and added another 60 yards rushing on 16 carries before subtracting sack yardage.

OL James Dawn II, a New Braunfels native, has started 27 games for the Bearkats primarily in the interior. At 6-3 and 310, the preseason All-Conference USA selection has the muscle to battle with the deep Texas rotation of defensive tackles.

MORE: Texas Longhorns slip below Oklahoma Sooners, Texas A&M Aggies in SEC power rankings

DB/punt returner Emon Allen, a former All-Central Texas player at Vista Ridge, gives Sam Houston one of the most versatile playmakers in its conference. Defensively he’s already racked up 18 tackles, forced a fumble and returned one of his two interceptions 66 yards for a TD against Hawaii.

Central Texas connections: In addition to Allen, the Bearkats’ roster includes freshman DB and LBJ product Fatu Mukuba, the younger brother of former Texas safety Andrew Mukuba. Former Westwood player Caius Coy is a walk-on DT.

This may sound familiar to Texas football fans who have spent the past two weeks watching the offensive line struggle against San Jose State and UTEP: The Bearkats make things difficult running the ball with a small but shifty defensive front that makes life miserable for some of the behemoths opposite the line of scrimmage. Former West Virginia lineman Zeiqui Lawton leads a unit that holds opponents to 127.7 rushing yards a game and 3.8 yards per carry.

Although Allen is having a nice season, the fourth-worst pass defense in the nation allows 314.7 yards passing a game and eight total passing touchdowns. Manning has one more chance to find a groove against a porous pass defense before the start of SEC play Oct. 4 at Florida.

MORE: Steve Sarkisian discusses throwing motion for quarterback Arch Manning

Where is Hunter Watson? The mercurial QB has something of a mysterious injury, which Longo said was suffered in the second game of the season against UNLV. After leading Iowa Western Community College to the 2023 NJCAA national championship, Watson started last season for the Bearkats and racked up 1,811 yards and 12 TDs passing to go along with 647 yards and nine TDs bon the ground. He had 209 yards passing and 91 yards rushing in a season-opening loss to Western Kentucky before leaving the second game against UNLV. His appearance Saturday could throw a wrench into the Longhorns’ defensive game plan.

Longo has embraced many of the Air Raid tenets while serving as offensive coordinator at Power Four schools Wisconsin (2023-24), North Carolina (2019-22) and Ole Miss (2017-18). He also likes the quarterback run game, especially with Mettauer. Against Hawaii, Locke ran just one time for 1 yard.

Dieterich, a 6-6, 310-pound redshirt sophomore from the Class 2A Texas town of Riesel, has emerged as a true technician at LT as well as a team leader. He’ll test the struggling Simmons, a preseason all-American who has just two solo tackles and half a sack for a team with only four sacks.

Danny Davis: Texas. The Longhorns win, Arch gets as right as you can against a lower-tier Conference USA team and the defense continues to do what the defense has been doing. The only question I need answered is how some of those backup running backs look as CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner attempt to get healthy before SEC play begins.

Thomas Jones:  Texas 41, Sam Houston 13. Manning and the passing game have to get things rolling this week, right? If not, it could be a long SEC season. Look for a freshman receiver like Daylan McCutcheon to make his case for burning a redshirt.

David Eckert: Texas 45, Sam Houston 3. The Bearkats, at this point, don’t have the requisite quality to come into Royal-Memorial Stadium and give the Longhorns a scare. Look for Texas to overwhelm the visitors with its athleticism and coast to a cozy win.

Follow the American-Statesman on Facebook and X for more. Your subscription makes work like this possible. Access all of our best content with this tremendous offer.