INDIANAPOLIS — The Colts surprised just about everybody last week, snapping a decade-long streak of futility in season openers by steamrolling a Dolphins team that admittedly looked like the mess a lot of analysts expected Miami to be.
Now, the Colts have to do it again, this time against an AFC opponent that drew a lot more praise this offseason after making the playoffs a year ago.
Indianapolis hosts Denver at 4:05 p.m. Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium, a rematch of a pivotal moment last December that ended up in the Broncos’ hands due to a string of second-half gaffes by the Colts.
The Broncos (1-0) and Colts (1-0) are coming off wins in the opener, setting up the potential for a fast start for whichever team comes out on top Sunday in a battle of coaching minds.
1. Daniel Jones took everybody by surprise against the Dolphins. Facing a Miami defense that blitzed on 51.5% of the dropbacks, Jones completed 22 of 29 passes for 272 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, added two touchdowns on the ground and directed an Indianapolis offense that scored on all seven possessions, a feat that hasn’t been pulled off in the NFL since 1977. Denver’s defense, on the other hand, represents a much more difficult test; the Broncos gave up a paltry 2.4 yards per play and 133 total yards overall in a win over Tennessee that was much worse than the 20-12 score indicated.
2. Miami brought the house last week. Denver, on the other hand, didn’t have to bring extra rushers often to get to No. 1 pick Cam Ward. The Broncos were one of nine teams that did not blitz at all in Week 1, according to Pro Football Reference, and they still racked up six sacks. The No. 1 weapon is Nik Bonitto, who had nine quarterback pressures last week and ruined last season’s matchup with Indianapolis by snatching Adonai Mitchell’s pass out of the air and taking it to the end zone. Bonitto can rush from either side; Colts tackles Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith must keep him in check.
Broncos pass rush vs Colts offensive line
3. Denver defensive end Zach Allen can be an excellent interior rusher. First-year starters Tanor Bortolini and Matt Goncalves held up well against Miami’s Zach Sieler last week, and it will be even more important to make life difficult for Allen, considering Bonitto is coming off the edge.
4. Pressure can come from anywhere, even if Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph minimizes the blitz again. Six different Broncos recorded a sack last week, coming from all over the field to clean up a scrambling Ward.
5. Denver’s Week 1 blitz numbers may be misleading. Slot cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian came up with a sack against the Titans, and Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph blitzed on 29.5% of the snaps a year ago, good for seventh-most in the NFL.
6. Ward averaged 2.89 seconds to throw against Denver last week, and Jones might be able to cut down the Denver pass rush a bit by getting the ball out of his hands quickly. The veteran averaged 2.52 seconds from snap to throw against Miami, the fifth-fastest mark in the league.
7. Denver might have the NFL’s best cornerback on the roster. Patrick Surtain Jr. was targeted just once last week, broke up that pass and helped make Ward’s NFL debut a living hell. If Surtain travels with a receiver, it would likely be veteran Colts receiver Michael Pittman Jr., whose six catches, 80 yards and a touchdown demand attention.
8. The Broncos secondary is solid outside of Surtain. Riley Moss leads a talented group of complementary cornerbacks, McMillian is good and Denver has the depth to play the matchup game against each Indianapolis receiver.
Can Colts rookie TE Tyler Warren do it again?
9. Rookie tight end Tyler Warren may be a focal point of the offense for the second consecutive week. Warren was impressive in his NFL debut, catching three of the first four passes on his way to a seven-catch, 76-yard day, and against Denver, he’ll mostly be lined up against veteran safety Talanoa Hufanga, who signed with the Broncos to take on tight ends in the passing game.
10. Indianapolis nearly ran away from Denver on the road last season by leaning on superstar running back Jonathan Taylor, whose gaffe of dropping the ball before the goal line cost the Colts dearly. Taylor rushed 18 times for 71 yards against a Miami defense clearly geared up to stop him, and even though he got banged up a little in the game, the big-play runner should be good to go to try to reprise his role against Denver’s defense.
11. Taylor caught three passes for 27 yards out of the backfield, a welcome development for a player who has been an inconsistent receiver in his five seasons in the NFL. From the looks of it, Jones will be more likely to check the ball down to Taylor for yardage, something that could be key against a secondary like Denver’s. The only explosive play the Titans recorded against Denver was a 29-yard pass to running back Tony Pollard.
12. Rookie running back DJ Giddens picked up 41 yards on 12 carries last week, signaling that he might be able to take a few carries off Taylor here or there. As good as Taylor is, he might be even better if Indianapolis allows its star to get a breather every once in a while.
13. If Surtain is assigned to Pittman, Jones may have to pivot to Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell on the outside. Pierce and Mitchell combined for three catches and 57 yards on five targets last week, mostly down the field.
14. Anthony Gould and Ashton Dulin might have a chance to make an impact on kickoff return. Denver allowed a 71-yard return by Tennessee’s Chimere Dike last week, pushing his average to 36 yards per return on four opportunities.
15. By the same token, Gould must make good decisions as a punt returner. Broncos punter Jeremy Crawshaw landed all three of his punts inside the 20-yard line last week, and Dike was only able to return one.
Can the Colts stop R.J. Harvey?
16. Indianapolis got off to such a good start against Miami that the Dolphins ran the ball just 12 times, but Miami picked up 78 yards on those 12 carries, averaging 6.5 yards per rush and likely sparking an idea in Denver head coach Sean Payton’s mind. The Broncos alternated veteran J.K. Dobbins and rookie R.J. Harvey at running back last week, producing 143 yards on 22 carries, and Payton isn’t afraid to go run-heavy in a game if the plan calls for it.
17. Broncos quarterback Bo Nix is also far more likely to make plays with his legs than Tua Tagovailoa. Nix rushed eight times for 18 yards in the opener, and even though the yardage totals weren’t impressive, Nix averaged 4.7 yards per carry as a rookie.
18. Nose tackle Grover Stewart may have a favorable matchup against Denver center Luke Wattenberg, who struggled at times with Tennessee’s power players in the opener.
19. Nix can be baited into mistakes by the right defensive game plan. Indianapolis picked him off three times in Denver last season, and he struggled with mistakes in the opener, throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble.
How do the Colts replace Charvarius Ward?
20. If No. 1 cornerback Charvarius Ward is unable to play against Denver due to a concussion, Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is going to have to get creative to protect his cornerbacks. Veteran Xavien Howard played better than anybody expected in his first start since 2023, and Ward’s replacement would likely be Mekhi Blackmon, a player Indianapolis targeted because of his speed. In that scenario, Anarumo might assign Howard to bigger-bodied Broncos receiver Courtland Sutton and line up Blackmon against a speedier Troy Franklin or Marvin Mims whenever possible.
21. Unlike Tagovailoa, Nix will sometimes hold the ball in search of the big play. Nix averaged 2.83 seconds from snap to throw in the opener, a respectable number but enough to indicate that the Colts pass rush will have chances to run him down in the pocket.
22. Nix took just one sack in the opener behind a Denver offensive line that is well-regarded outside of the center position, but the Titans were also one of the teams that did not blitz in the opener, according to Pro Football Reference. Anarumo blitzed on 25% of his snaps, according to the site, and blitzes produced two sacks and an interception, while clearly confusing Tagovailoa. Against a good Broncos defensive line, pressure might have to come from creativity.
23. Anarumo is moving DeForest Buckner around to get favorable matchups, and it would be wise to lean into the strategy against a Denver offensive line that features Quinn Meinerz at guard.
24. Laiatu Latu had a big interception against the Dolphins, but he also failed to record a sack or quarterback hit off the edge. Indianapolis needs Latu to be a wrecking ball off the edge this season, and his best matchup against Denver is likely right tackle Mike McGlinchey. Veteran Garett Bolles mans the left side.
25. Keep an eye out for Colts defensive end Samson Ebukam, who produced a sack and three quarterback hits in just 18 snaps a week ago.
26. Backup Broncos running back Tyler Badie was targeted six times in the passing game a week ago, and Payton offenses traditionally have a running back capable of making a defense pay. Indianapolis strong safety Nick Cross, along with the weak-side linebacker platoon of Joe Bachie and Cameron McGrone, must keep the short passing game in check to avoid giving Nix and Payton easy yards.
27. Cross and slot cornerback Kenny Moore II each came up with sacks against the Dolphins, a sign that Anarumo is willing to bring pressure from just about anywhere in order to get to the quarterback.
28. The chess match between Payton and Anarumo will be one to watch. Both men are known for building game plans to take away an opponent’s strength and attack his weaknesses, and whoever anticipates the others moves better has the upper hand.
Joel A. Erickson covers the Colts all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Colts Insider newsletter.
