Allstate (ALL) Down 4.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Allstate (ALL). Shares have lost about 4.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allstate due for a breakout? Well, first let’s take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for The Allstate Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

ALL Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Underwriting, Lower Expenses

Allstate reported a first-quarter 2026 adjusted net income of $10.65 per share, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 43.3%. The bottom line surged 201.7% year over year.

Operating revenues of $17.3 billion grew 3.2% year over year. However, the top line missed the consensus mark by 2%.

Allstate’s quarterly results were driven by higher property and casualty insurance premiums, improved net investment income and lower catastrophe losses. Lower expenses and strong underwriting performance further aided results.

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Key Takeaways From Allstate’s Q1 Results

Property and casualty insurance premiums improved 5.8% year over year to $15.6 billion. Net investment income of $938 million advanced 9.8% year over year on the back of a growing market-based portfolio. The metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $895 million and our estimate of $935 million. Market-based investment income rose 10% year over year to $791 million in the quarter under review.

Total costs and expenses were $13.8 billion, which decreased 12.1% year over year and was lower than our estimate of $15.5 billion. The year-over-year decline was due to decreased property and casualty insurance claims and claims expenses, accident, health and other policy benefits and Pension and other postretirement remeasurement (gains) losses. Catastrophe losses of $1.2 billion dropped 43.7% year over year.

Allstate’s pretax income increased significantly, up 332.3% year over year to $3.1 billion. As of Dec. 31, 2025, total policies in force were 212 million, up 2.5% year over year.

ALL’s Segmental Performances

The Property-Liability segment reported premiums earned of $14.8 billion in the first quarter, up 5.5% year over year, driven by higher average premiums in homeowners insurance and growth in policies in force. However, the metric missed both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate of $15.1 billion. Underwriting income in the segment surged 638.3% year over year to $2.7 billion. The underlying combined ratio improved 280 basis points to 80.3%.

The Protection Services segment’s revenues advanced 7.2% year over year to $922 million, aided by Allstate Protection Plans and Roadside businesses. The metric lagged our estimate of $958.9 million. Adjusted net income of $47 million declined 14.5% year over year.

Financial Update (As of March 31, 2026)

Allstate exited the first quarter with a cash balance of $697 million, up from $678 million at 2025-end. Total assets increased to $124 billion from $119.8 billion at the end of 2025.

Debt remained unchanged at $7.5 billion from the 2025-end level.

Total equity increased to $31.6 billion from $30.6 billion at 2025-end.

Book value per common share was $113.52 as of March 31, 2026, up 52.2% year over year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted 10.06% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Allstate has a nice Growth Score of B, a score with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren’t focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Allstate has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Allstate belongs to the Zacks Insurance – Property and Casualty industry. Another stock from the same industry, Selective Insurance (SIGI), has gained 4% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2026.

Selective Insurance reported revenues of $1.37 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +6.4%. EPS of $1.69 for the same period compares with $1.76 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Selective Insurance is expected to post earnings of $1.69 per share, indicating a change of +29% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +1.7% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Selective Insurance. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.

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